Petro D. | ResearchUpdate

@PDmytriiev

Two trillion for @AnthropicAI, $1.3 trillion for @OpenAI, and neither number has a share price behind it: Entropy's order books are now setting the reference valuations for both frontier AI labs before either has a ticker on Nasdaq. @entropyIO (HIP-3 ticker io, oracles by @redstone_defi, $14M seed from Ribbit) quotes both markets in market cap, so $1 of price equals $1B of valuation. Same oracle, same 6x leverage, same 0.0125 funding multiplier; what differs is capacity, catalyst and where the market has settled. io:ANTH (Anthropic): https://t.co/RMMcsGUSpC → Live since Aug 24, 2026; announced Aug 18, so the no-IPO resolution date is Aug 18, 2028 → Catastrophic bounds $0.3T–$4.2T, OI cap 24M, isolated margin, growth mode on → ~$248M volume and 788k trades over the past 30 days, the deployer's second-largest market after SNDK → Trading around $1,945 (~$1.94T), roughly 2x the $965B Series H and in line with the 19-venue average; still a ~42% premium to the $1.38T secondary mark → The near-term test: Anthropic is targeting a Nasdaq listing in Sept/Oct 2026. Three days before an announced listing the oracle switches to a 1h EMA of the mark, then adopts public pricing, but Hyperliquid cannot rescale markets, so ANTH stays a market-cap perp after the IPO rather than converting to a per-share contract io:OAI (OpenAI): https://t.co/2bNvDdu4E3 → ~$19.8M volume and 44k trades in its first week; on Sept 3 it printed $1.33T with $2.96M 24h volume and $1.64M OI → Prices slightly above the $1.21–1.25T CEX cluster, a ~42–46% premium to the $852B Series F, a reference OpenAI reaffirmed with a $7B employee tender in August → No dated catalyst: a two-year instrument whose only scheduled endpoint is settlement to its own 6-month TWAP if OpenAI stays private Mechanism: → Oracle blends a 5-min EMA of the book mid with an external private-market aggregate, weighted by executable depth within 200 bps; with a = 100, roughly $100k of two-sided depth saturates the internal weight at 95%, so on active days both books effectively price themselves → Mark is the internal EMA alone, clipped to bounds, so liquidations depend only on Entropy's own book →Funding at 0.0125x is a loose tether by design, sitting between tradexyz's 0.005 and Ventuals' 0.05 → No listing by the resolution date means cash settlement to the trailing 6-month TWAP of the mark; early settlement or M&A uses a 30-day TWAP or the confirmed deal cap https://t.co/TaiEPVi8hn

Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 07:51 PM UTC