Petro D. | ResearchCommunity

@PDmytriiev

Variational is the second-largest perp DEX by weekly volume, and Polymarket already prices its points at about $50 each. At TGE, 32% of $VAR supply goes to points holders. Points will total somewhere between 9.3M and 11.1M, depending on when the Q4 TGE lands, since about 9.15M are already out and each week adds another 150K. The matrix below shows what a point is worth if $VAR lists at the current FDV of each major perp DEX. -> Polymarket. The $1.52B median FDV works out to $52 a point for an early-October TGE, falling to $44 if the TGE slips to Christmas. -> Top tier. At Aster or Lighter FDVs a point is worth $127–190, and at Hyperliquid's $85B it's worth $2,449–2,923. Those are the comparisons behind most of the bullish talk. -> Mid-tier peers. At edgeX, o1 or Derive valuations a point lands at $11–19, which is 60–75% below what Polymarket implies. -> Low end. At GRVT, ApeX or dYdX levels a point is worth $4–7. That's roughly where recent perp DEX launches actually listed relative to their revenue. -> Timing. Every week of delay adds 150K points, which trims about 1.5% off the value of each point. A Christmas TGE instead of an early-October one costs every holder around 16%.

Monday, September 28, 2026 at 05:08 PM UTC